Key Points
- United guided fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share to $0.50–$1.50 versus $1.76 expected, assuming fuel at $4.80 a gallon — about $0.45 above consensus, worth roughly $1 a share.
- Revenue is not the issue: third-quarter revenue rose 17% to about $17.9 billion, with premium, loyalty, and basic economy revenue all up 16% to 17%, while the fuel bill rose nearly 62%.
- United’s CFO said to expect more fare increases and capacity cuts, and Delta cut its 2026 earnings guidance to $5.10–$5.60 per share, attributing the cut entirely to fuel.
Summary
United Airlines issued a fourth-quarter earnings outlook well below Wall Street expectations, blaming high jet fuel costs. The carrier now expects adjusted earnings per share of $0.50 to $1.50, against the $1.76 analysts had modeled, and expects fuel to average $4.80 a gallon — about $0.45 above consensus, a gap United said is worth roughly $1 a share. The high end of the range would cap United’s 2026 adjusted earnings at $7.22 per share, far below the $9 to $11 range it guided to in mid-July. Demand itself is not the problem: third-quarter revenue rose 17% to about $17.9 billion, with premium and loyalty revenue each up 17% and basic economy up 16%, and adjusted net income of $833 million. United’s fuel bill rose nearly 62% in the quarter. CFO Michael Leskinen said in September to expect more airfare increases and capacity cuts, and that United expects to pass on 100% of fuel costs by the end of the year. CEO Scott Kirby has argued higher fares will stick even if fuel prices fall, citing demand and rising labor, maintenance, and airport costs. Delta cut its 2026 earnings guidance to $5.10–$5.60 per share from $6.50–$7.50, with executives attributing the cut entirely to fuel.