The winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced next week, on Thursday, October 8. Said winner will take home 12.0 million Swedish kronor (SEK), or a little over 1.2 million dollars, along with a lifetime of laurels. But who will it be? No one outside of the Swedish Academy can say for sure, but if you’d like to put some money on it, the bookies shall oblige—and the odds they’re offering might give us a hint. Or, just as often, not!
Last year’s winner, László Krasznahorkai, had odds of 6 to 1 at this time last year; nobody is favored that heavily in this year’s list. But Can Xue is back on top after randomly falling out of the top 5 in 2025; I’m always asking if this is her year, and I’ll ask it again. Gerald Murnane continues to lurk; it could be his year too. Murakami, Pynchon, and Atwood are all too high and will never win. J.K. Rowling has the same odds as Louise Erdrich and Yoko Tawada, which is a travesty. I think Alexis Wright would be a good choice.
Anyway, nobody knows anything, but here are the bookies’ odds for the winner as of this writing, according to British betting mainstay Ladbrokes. So take a look and place your bets—one of these people will soon be our newest Nobel Laureate. Unless of course it is someone else entirely! Anything could happen. Maybe Bob Dylan will win again!*
Can Xue – 10/1
Haruki Murakami – 14/1
Gerald Murnane – 16/1
Thomas Pynchon – 16/1
Cristina Rivera Garza – 20/1
Enrique Vila-Matas – 20/1
Lidia Jorge – 20/1
Ludmila Ulitskaja – 20/1
Margaret Atwood – 20/1
Michel Houellebecq – 20/1
Karl Ove Knausgaard – 22/1
Alan Mabanckou – 25/1
Alexis Wright – 25/1
Ali Ahmad Said Esber – 25/1
Carl Frode Tiller – 25/1
Christian Kracht – 25/1
Colm Tóibín – 25/1
César Aira – 25/1
Deborah Levy – 25/1
Diamela Eltit – 25/1
Don DeLillo – 25/1
Emmanuel Carrere – 25/1
Ersi Sotiropoulos – 25/1
Ibrahim al-Koni – 25/1
Leila Aboulela – 25/1
Mia Couto – 25/1
Michael Ondaatje – 25/1
Mircea Cărtărescu – 25/1
Norbert Gstrein – 25/1
Pierre Michon – 25/1
Salim Barakat – 25/1
Salman Rushdie – 25/1
Scholastique Mukasonga – 25/1
Sebastian Barry – 25/1
Tahar Ben Jelloun – 25/1
Adelia Prado – 33/1
Andrey Kurkov – 33/1
Anne Carson – 33/1
Antonio Muñoz Molina – 33/1
Botho Strauss – 33/1
Bushra al-Maqtari – 33/1
Caryl Phillips – 33/1
Colson Whitehead – 33/1
Cristina Peri Rossi – 33/1
David Grossman – 33/1
Edwidge Danticat – 33/1
Garielle Lutz – 33/1
Hamid Ismailov – 33/1
Helen Garner – 33/1
Homero Aridjis – 33/1
Hélène Cixous – 33/1
Ida Vitale – 33/1
Jamaica Kincaid – 33/1
Leslie Marmon Silko – 33/1
Marie NDiaye – 33/1
Mieko Kanai – 33/1
Patrick Chamoiseau – 33/1
Rachel Cusk – 33/1
Raul Zúrita – 33/1
Robert Macfarlane – 33/1
Ryszard Krynicki – 33/1
Samar Yazbek – 33/1
William T. Vollmann – 33/1
Ananda Devi – 40/1
Duong Thu Huong – 40/1
Hwang Sok-yong – 40/1
Ivan Vladislavić – 40/1
Joy Harjo – 40/1
Joyce Carol Oates – 40/1
Linton Kwesi Johnson – 40/1
Mahmoud Dowlatabadi – 40/1
Marilynne Robinson – 40/1
Martha Nussbaum – 40/1
Nuruddin Farah – 40/1
Paulina Chiziane – 40/1
Vladimir Sorokin – 40/1
Yan Lianke – 40/1
Ali Smith – 50/1
Amitav Ghosh – 50/1
Boubacar Boris Diop – 50/1
Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie – 50/1
Claudio Magris – 50/1
David Peace – 50/1
Ko Un – 50/1
Louise Erdrich – 50/1
Murray Bail – 50/1
Patricia Grace – 50/1
Stephen King – 50/1
Xiaolu Guo – 50/1
Yoko Tawada – 50/1
Yu Hua – 50/1
J.K. Rowling – 50/1
*Bob Dylan will not win again.